What Florida’s party registration trends can tell us about the outcome of a Trump-Biden rematch

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – The 2024 election is shaping up to be the first year in decades were Florida is not a pivotal, competitive swing state.

Before 2020, Florida had voted for the winning presidential candidate 10 of 11 elections going back to 1976. The only exception was the 1992 election of Democratic candidate Bill Clinton versus Republican George H. W. Bush.

But in 2020, as much of the swing states trended Democratic from former President Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, Florida swung right: Trump’s margin of victory there went from 1.2% over Hillary Clinton to about 3.3% over President Joe Biden.

Since then, Republicans have swung party registrations deeply in their favor, previously trailing by hundreds of thousands of registered voters to now leading by nearly 900,000, according to data as of April 1 compiled by Florida’s Voice.